Weekly Guide to the Housing Market - Can Home Sales Grow in 2026?

As your trusted real estate advisor, I have valuable and unique information about the pulse of the market based on real-time data. For example, As we head into the final weeks of 2025, the housing market is settling into its year-end transition. Real-time pricing data continues to show broad-based softness: list prices and asking price per square foot are now running about 1.5% below last year, and recent pending-sale prices have begun to slip as well. While headline price indexes remain backward-looking, buyers active today are already seeing more negotiating room and better value than they did a year ago. Home sales, meanwhile, remain on a fragile but constructive path. Weekly pending sales dipped during the holiday period—typical for this time of year—but the broader trend remains slightly above last year and near three-year highs. With mortgage rates still in the low-6% range, the data suggests demand is waiting for the calendar to turn, not disappearing. Inventory continues to be a defining force. There are roughly 750,000–800,000 single-family homes on the market nationwide, about 15% more than last year and firmly back within pre-pandemic “normal” levels. Inventory is declining seasonally through December due to sales and withdrawals, but the overall supply backdrop is still elevated enough to keep pressure on prices and give buyers far more choice than they’ve had in recent years. Looking ahead to 2026, if mortgage rates hold near current levels, this combination of softer prices, elevated inventory, and pent-up demand could support gradual growth in home sales. At the same time, with many sellers sidelined and planning to relist in the spring, those who act earlier have an opportunity to lead the market rather than compete in it. If you’re considering a move, now is the time to approach the market intentionally. Using The Compass 3-Phased Marketing Strategy—including Private Exclusives and Coming Soon—I can help you get in front of buyers early, test demand and pricing thoughtfully, and position your home ahead of the next wave of competition. Let’s put a smart plan in place now so you’re ready for what 2026 brings.

here are a few insights that stood out: Affordability is stabilizing at improved levels. Mortgage rates remain in the low-6% range, keeping monthly payments meaningfully lower than a year ago and helping buyers re-enter the market, even as confidence remains measured. Inventory remains higher than last year. Active listings are holding near 750,000–800,000 single-family homes nationwide, roughly 13–16% above 2024 levels and firmly back within pre-pandemic norms. While listings are declining seasonally through the holidays, the overall supply backdrop continues to favor buyers, with notable regional differences. Home sales are showing early signs of recovery. Weekly pending sales have dipped slightly in recent holiday weeks, but the broader trend remains modestly above last year and near multi-year highs for this time of year. With mortgage rates lower than last winter, the data suggests buyers are poised to re-engage as we move into Q1. Prices remain under pressure. Asking prices and price per square foot are running about 1.5% below last year nationally, a leading indicator that points to softer sales prices in the months ahead. While lagging price indexes are still catching up, today’s market is already offering buyers more leverage than they’ve had in several years. Takeaway: With inventory elevated, prices adjusting, and demand beginning to stabilize, this is a strategic moment to test the market thoughtfully. Using the Compass 3-Phased Marketing Strategy—including Private Exclusives and Coming Soon—I can help you evaluate real demand, fine-tune pricing, and position your home ahead of the spring surge, rather than reacting once competition returns. Source: Altos Research, Compass, Single Family - Updated through December 20th Have questions about what this means for your neighborhood or your home plans? Just reach out—I’m always here to help you navigate the market with clarity and confidence. Contact me today

Jennifer O'Connor DRE# 01898025 Broker Associate M: 626.437.3651 jenniferoconnor@compass.com oconnorrealestate.com

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

This email is for informational purposes only. You should seek their own professional advice before making decisions. Compass disclaims any liability for reliance on this content.

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